NRL 2025 Round 4
Watching the great Nathan Cleary look dazed and swaying around certainly wasn’t the sight that Panthers fans needed in what was going to be their most challenging year to go for the five-peat. Even before Cleary went down, the Panthers weren’t the favourites in their previous clash against the Storm.
Now, with Cleary missing again in this game, it presents a challenge (or opportunity - whichever way you want to look at it) for others. Cleary is the big (and only) out for the Panthers and despite that, they are still the favourites coming into this Thursday night clash.
They played well last time out in Melbourne, without Cleary for most of the game. Meanwhile, the Sharks ran all over the top of the Rabbitohs, with the team only getting two late tries when the game was effectively over. I think defence will be the name of the game here, so I’ll be taking the Unders.
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
 | Under points - 48.5 | $1.85 |
 | Under points - 48.5 | $1.93 |
 | Under points - 48.5 | $1.91 |
South Sydney Rabbitohs - Jye Gray, Alex Johnston, Jack Wighton, Isaiah Tass, Mikaele Ravalawa, Cody Walker, Jamie Humphreys, Sean Keppie, Peter Mamouzelos, Davvy Moale, Keaon Koloamatangi, Jai Arrow, Tallis Duncan, Jayden Sullivan, Siliva Havili, Liam Le Blanc & Tevita Tatola
Penrith Panthers - Daine Laurie, Paul Alamoti, Izack Tago, Thomas Jenkins, Brian To'o, Jack Cole, Trent Toelau, Moses Leota, Mitch Kenny, Lindsay Smith, Scott Sorensen, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Blaize Talagi, Isaiah Papali'i, Liam Henry & Luke Garner
The Titans come down to Sydney after a successful home game against the Knights. The Knights were never in that game and the Titans will be happy to get their first win on the board. They face a whole different beast in the Roosters though and they will have to be on their A-game to notch up another win.
Meanwhile, the Roosters will be happy to be back at home after an unsuccessful trip across the ditch. Inconsistency seems to plague these two teams, so I’ll be steering away from an outright winner. Although, the Titans do present some decent value with their head-to-head odds.
The last two meetings between the pair have been points galore and most of their games so far this season have been high-scoring as well. Pretty decent weather in Sydney as well, not as much rain as we once thought, so expect a fast track and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dom Young score a try or two!
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
| Anytime try scorer - Dom Young | $1.55 |
| Anytime try scorer - Dom Young | $1.53 |
| Over points - 50.5 | $1.91 |
Sydney Roosters - James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Robert Toia, Dominic Young, Sandon Smith, Chad Townsend, Naufahu Whyte, Zach Dockar-Clay, Spencer Leniu, Angus Crichton, Siua Wong, Victor Radley, Hugo Savala, Blake Steep, Nat Butcher & Lindsay Collins
Gold Coast Titans - Jaylan De Groot, Tony Francis, Brian Kelly, Phillip Sami, Jojo Fifita, AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell, Moeaki Fotuaika, Sam Verrills, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Klese Haas, Beau Fermor, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Chris Randall, David Fifita, Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui & Brock Gray
Two Queensland teams do battle and looking at the head-to-head, it is the Broncos that lead that one 3-1. The Dolphins did get the better of their brother team in their last clash, 40-6. However, losing coach Wayne Bennett seems to be the worst thing that could have happened to the Dolphins.
The Fins are still yet to get any chalk up a win in the 2025 season and things are starting to get a little desperate after falling to the Tigers last time out. The biggest question I have is, can anyone stop Payne Haas, his form throughout the 2025 season so far has been out of this world.
Brisbane should be able to get the job done easily, so take them to cover the line. If you’re looking for something different, Haas to score a try looks good as well. I’m expecting the big Broncos to show the Dolphins who’s boss up north with a flamboyant win that will send the Dolphins down to 0-4.
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
| Anytime try scorer - Payne Haas | $4.75 |
| Broncos -14.5 | $1.93 |
| Broncos -13.5 | $1.91 |
Dolphins - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Jamayne Isaako, Jake Averillo, Herbie Farnworth, Jack Bostock, Kodi Nikorima, Isaiya Katoa, Daniel Saifiti, Jeremy Marshall-King, Felise Kaufusi, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Max Plath, Tom Gilbert, Kurt Donoghoe, Oryn Keeley, Mark Nicholls & Ray Stone
Brisbane Broncos - Reece Walsh, Selwyn Cobbo, Kotoni Staggs, Gehamat Shibasaki, Jesse Arthars, Ben Hunt, Adam Reynolds, Patrick Carrigan, Cory Paix, Payne Haas, Jack Gosiewski, Jordan Riki, Kobe Hetherington, Billy Walters, Corey Jensen, Xavier Willison & Brendan Piakura
The Storm beat the Panthers down in Melbourne, as they were tipped to do. But I don’t think it was as convincing a win as they would have hoped for. Clearly going down early in the first half certainly helped their cause, but the Storm could never really put the Panthers away.
That win came at a cost as well with three key players, Jahrome Hughes, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Nick Meaney all set to miss this clash. The Dragons, on the other hand, are yet to get a win on the board, but have two competition points thanks to a bye last round.
Their Round 2 clash would have left a sour taste in their mouths as they lost by one point in the 75th minute after being in control of a large portion of that match against the Rabbitohs. The Storm are the favourites and I think they’ll win this one and I’m going to play it safe, taking them in the head-to-head market.
St. George Illawarra Dragons - Clinton Gutherson, Tyrell Sloan, Moses Suli, Valentine Holmes, Christian Tuipulotu, Kyle Flanagan, Lachlan Ilias, Toby Couchman, Damien Cook, Emre Guler, Luciano Leilua, Jaydn Su'A, Jack de Belin, Jacob Liddle, David Klemmer, Hamish Stewart & Dylan Egan
Melbourne Storm - Ryan Papenhuyzen, Will Warbrick, Jack Howarth, Grant Anderson, Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster, Tyran Wishart, Stefano Utoikamanu, Harry Grant, Josh King, Shawn Blore, Eliesa Katoa, Trent Loiero, Bronson Garlick, Alec MacDonald, Tui Kamikamica & Lazarus Vaalepu
This one strikes me as the closest game of the round and the most difficult to pick. The Cowboys will be happy to be back home after another loss, this time to the Broncos and they need to get a win on the board here as they are currently 0-3. They need to work on their defence as they’ve let in over 20 points in all three matches.
On paper, the 12-40 loss to the Sea Eagles doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Raiders. However, if Corey Horsburgh didn’t get sin-binned in the 21st minute, things could have been a completely different story. The Raiders let in three tries during this time, not to mention the fatigue for the rest of the game as a result of playing with a man down.
The Cowboys are the narrow favourites and I understand you would usually give the home team the slight advantage, but we are talking about a team that hasn’t won a game yet! I think the Raiders, despite having to make the trip from Canberra to North Queensland, will win this one.
North Queensland Cowboys - Scott Drinkwater, Robert Derby, Jaxon Purdue, Viliami Vailea, Murray Taulagi, Tom Dearden, Jake Clifford, Jordan McLean, Reece Robson, Jason Taumalolo, John Bateman, Kai O'Donnell, Reuben Cotter, Sam McIntyre, Jeremiah Nanai, Griffin Neame & Coen Hess
Canberra Raiders - Kaeo Weekes, Savelio Tamale, Matthew Timoko, Sebastian Kris, Xavier Savage, Ethan Strange, Jamal Fogarty, Josh Papalii, Tom Starling, Joseph Tapine, Hudson Young, Matty Nicholson, Corey Horsburgh, Owen Pattie, Simi Sasagi, Trey Mooney & Ata Mariota
The Bulldogs are one of the couple of teams that have won all three of their games so far this season. However, facing the Sharks at Shark Park seems to be their most difficult challenge and the Sharks are the favourites for this one. The Bulldogs did get the win against the Eels last time out, but it wasn’t as convincing as some had hoped.
The Sharks are on a two-game winning streak after dispatching the Cowboys and the Rabbitohs in their last two games. It looks like the Dogs will be missing a few key personnel, with the most influential being Matt Burton. I’m a bit surprised that the Sharks are as heavy favourites as they are.
Yes, I do think they will end the Bulldogs’ undefeated run, but I expect it to be a much closer battle than the bookies are giving them credit for. With that being said, let’s take the Bulldogs to cover the spread. I don’t think the Sharks will be able to completely run away with this.
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
| Bulldogs +10.5 | $1.90 |
| Winning margin - Sharks 1-12 | $3.10 |
| Bulldogs +11.5 | $1.95 |
Cronulla Sharks - William Kennedy, Sam Stonestreet, Jesse Ramien, Kayal Iro, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Braydon Trindall, Nicho Hynes, Addin Fonua-Blake, Blayke Brailey, Oregon Kaufusi, Briton Nikora, Teig Wilton, Cameron McInnes, Daniel Atkinson, Siosifa Talakai, Thomas Hazelton & Tuku Hau Tapuha
Canterbury Bulldogs - Connor Tracey, Blake Wilson, Bronson Xerri, Stephen Crichton, Marcelo Montoya, Bailey Hayward, Toby Sexton, Max King, Reed Mahoney, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Josh Curran, Jacob Preston, Jaeman Salmon, Kurt Mann, Harry Hayes, Sitili Tupouniua & Kurtis Morrin
Can the Sea Eagles put the off-field drama in the back of their minds when they hit the field? There’s probably no better time to play the worst team in the league right now. On the other side, the Eels did play okay last round and they could benefit from all the distractions in the Sea Eagles camp.
Realistically though, the Sea Eagles are the much better team and I don’t think anything will stop them from having a field day against a team that hasn’t chalked up a win yet. The attacking flair of seasons past for the Eels seems to be gone and with the defence of the Sea Eagles, this could get ugly.
I’m not sure I can see where the Eels can score 20 points in this clash at 4 Pines Park. So, there are a few plays you could do here. I’ll be taking the Eels total points under 18.5, but you can also take the Sea Eagles to cover the line, which is set at around -17.5.
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
| Eels total points - Under 18.5 | $1.75 |
| Winning margin - Sea Eagles 13+ | $1.57 |
| Sea Eagles -17.5 | $1.91 |
Manly Sea Eagles - Tom Trbojevic, Jason Saab, Tolutau Koula, Reuben Garrick, Lehi Hopoate, Luke Brooks, Daly Cherry-Evans, Josh Aloiai, Jazz Tevaga, Siosiua Taukeiaho, Haumole Olakau'atu, Ben Trbojevic, Jake Trbojevic, Jake Simpkin, Corey Waddell, Ethan Bullemor & Nathan Brown
Parramatta Eels - Isaiah Iongi, Sean Russell, Will Penisini, Zac Lomax, Josh Addo-Carr, Dylan Brown, Dean Hawkins, Jack Williams, Joey Lussick, Junior Paulo, Shaun Lane, Kitione Kautoga, J'maine Hopgood, Ryley Smith, Matt Doorey, Joe Ofahengaue & Dan Keir
Haven’t seen this much in recent times, but the Tigers come into this clash as the head-to-head favourite. After their performance last round, I can certainly see why. Not only that, but the Tigers are in the top four, yes it is 2025 and not 2005! When was the last time we saw that?
Now, they take on the Warriors in Campbelltown and for once, the Tigers fans actually have something to cheer about, so expect them to come out in force! Api was back to his best in the come-from-behind win against the Dolphins up in Queensland and I think they’ll relish playing back at home.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is a big out for the Warriors, but they have won their last two games against the Tigers. The Tigers are a different team than they have been in the last two seasons. The Warriors were quite impressive against the Roosters last time out, not letting in any tries in the season half.
| Bookmaker | Katherine’s Tip | Odds |
| Warriors +4.5 | $1.85 |
| Anytime try scorer - Apisai Koroisau | $3.60 |
| Warriors +4.5 | $1.87 |
Wests Tigers - Jahream Bula, Sunia Turuva, Adam Doueihi, Starford To'a, Jeral Skelton, Lachlan Galvin, Jarome Luai, Terrell May, Apisai Koroisau, Fonua Pole, Samuela Fainu, Alex Seyfarth, Alex Twal, Tallyn Da Silva, Royce Hunt, Jack Bird & Sione Fainu
New Zealand Warriors - Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Taine Tuaupiki, Rocco Berry, Ali Leiataua, Adam Pompey, Chanel Harris-Tavita, Luke Metcalf, James Fisher-Harris, Wayde Egan, Mitchell Barnett, Kurt Capewell, Marata Niukore, Erin Clark, Dylan Walker, Jackson Ford, Demitric Vaimauga & Leka Halasima
